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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛# C2 z' D5 p' f. l
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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$ y# D/ b) H3 u2 c- |; t三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，  @1 J9 a4 g: z+ Y( Z

5 H# k0 P3 _! ~: V0 p偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，8 x' a% l3 J  C
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱6 k1 R( \6 G( l2 s! a2 W4 O6 M
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，% Q* P0 H+ r# m( n; B
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。% \. V6 M# b: [

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5 Y% S! X- e; b理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。* ^/ o4 T; n3 U9 E

! a0 |( i! C' X/ p  N7 T排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，2 W! [# n; C, m7 o  U+ _4 U
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。7 K' r6 p9 h5 f; v9 s: d" |7 b
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，# h8 T  w- Q$ s4 `+ w( S

) g; A" b: }6 J, D( Z几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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5 `5 w5 J  w0 |常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，3 T, A5 D9 d* m3 l

, Q) X0 t* u3 a: i# v就是回避了大的亏损，
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/ l7 ?) c9 l& c+ C大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，# S, |5 Q6 L0 _& l( b3 B
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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